Belmont Bust or Buzz?

With so little fanfare going into the Belmont it would be easy to think that triple crown races for the year are over. Yet it is not a suprise due in large part to the lack of a triple crown bid and the fact that neither the KY Derby or Preakness winner will be in the starting gate. However, the race is shaping up to provide some good betting opportunities for the public.

The horse coming out of the derby, such as Ice Box and Make Music for Me, but having bypassed the Preakness appear as though they will take the majority of the action. In fact I would not be suprised to see those two open as the morning line favorite and second choice. However, I am skeptical of both horses going into the race. Music's pedigree screams out that 1 1/2 miles is way to far for him. As it was he flattened out in the last 1/16 mile in the derby after making an impressive move. As for Ice Box, while he may be able to get the distance, the flow of the race seems to set up against a deep closer. First Dude will obviously be committed to the lead but after that there may be a huge lack of speed. The conncections of First Dude will most likely try to slow the race way down up front, which will put Ice Box at a huge disadvantage unless he reverts to his pace pressing style from his allowance and maiden wins. He may well be the most talented of the bunch that are heading to the race and he certainly must be a fixture in any excata, trifecta, or super plays, but on the win end I am taking a stand against him.

So then who will provide the value in the race? I personally think Game on Dude provides a solid altenative to either Ice or Music, but with the Baffert/Garcia combo behind him, his odds are sure to be lower than fair value. In my opinion that leaves only Fly Down, Drosselmeyer as the logical plays for win honors. I will dismiss Fly Down simply on the fact that he will be overbet (albeit in the 5-1 to 10-1 range) off his huge Dwyer win. So now we come to my top pick of Drosselmeyer.

It's hard to imagine that Drosselmeyer will be able to get past Fly Down this time around after his crushing loss in the Withers, but it appears that WinStar has kept the faith in the son of Distorted Humor. Making the case for him becomes easier when you look at the trip notes for the Dwyer. Drosselmeyer started slow and was blocked at a crucial point in the race which allowed Fly Down to get the jump on him. If Drosselmeyer's new rider is able to secure a nice stalking trip free of trouble then look for him to be the first one to tackle First Dude. In his only two wins Drossel was up close early and then took control in the lane. If he can get first run on the field then I don't expect the closers will be able to run him down after sitting behind what will be a dwadling pace. WinStar has already tasted success in this years Triple Crown and are looking to lock up a second jewel. The connections are certainly taking all steps to get the best from the colt based on the switch from Kent D. to Mike Smith. It seems all systems are go for Drosselmeyer to step up and run the race of his life.