With so little fanfare going into the Belmont it would be easy to think that triple crown races for the year are over. Yet it is not a suprise due in large part to the lack of a triple crown bid and the fact that neither the KY Derby or Preakness winner will be in the starting gate. However, the race is shaping up to provide some good betting opportunities for the public.
The horse coming out of the derby, such as Ice Box and Make Music for Me, but having bypassed the Preakness appear as though they will take the majority of the action. In fact I would not be suprised to see those two open as the morning line favorite and second choice. However, I am skeptical of both horses going into the race. Music's pedigree screams out that 1 1/2 miles is way to far for him. As it was he flattened out in the last 1/16 mile in the derby after making an impressive move. As for Ice Box, while he may be able to get the distance, the flow of the race seems to set up against a deep closer. First Dude will obviously be committed to the lead but after that there may be a huge lack of speed. The conncections of First Dude will most likely try to slow the race way down up front, which will put Ice Box at a huge disadvantage unless he reverts to his pace pressing style from his allowance and maiden wins. He may well be the most talented of the bunch that are heading to the race and he certainly must be a fixture in any excata, trifecta, or super plays, but on the win end I am taking a stand against him.
So then who will provide the value in the race? I personally think Game on Dude provides a solid altenative to either Ice or Music, but with the Baffert/Garcia combo behind him, his odds are sure to be lower than fair value. In my opinion that leaves only Fly Down, Drosselmeyer as the logical plays for win honors. I will dismiss Fly Down simply on the fact that he will be overbet (albeit in the 5-1 to 10-1 range) off his huge Dwyer win. So now we come to my top pick of Drosselmeyer.
It's hard to imagine that Drosselmeyer will be able to get past Fly Down this time around after his crushing loss in the Withers, but it appears that WinStar has kept the faith in the son of Distorted Humor. Making the case for him becomes easier when you look at the trip notes for the Dwyer. Drosselmeyer started slow and was blocked at a crucial point in the race which allowed Fly Down to get the jump on him. If Drosselmeyer's new rider is able to secure a nice stalking trip free of trouble then look for him to be the first one to tackle First Dude. In his only two wins Drossel was up close early and then took control in the lane. If he can get first run on the field then I don't expect the closers will be able to run him down after sitting behind what will be a dwadling pace. WinStar has already tasted success in this years Triple Crown and are looking to lock up a second jewel. The connections are certainly taking all steps to get the best from the colt based on the switch from Kent D. to Mike Smith. It seems all systems are go for Drosselmeyer to step up and run the race of his life.
Monday, May 24, 2010
Thursday, April 8, 2010
Zenyatta!!! Yes She Can
The greatest thoroughbred living will give everyone another chance to watch beauty in motion tomorrow as she looks to tie the modern record of 16 straight unrestricted victories.
The Big Mare has given every indication that she will win the Apple Blossom for the second time in as many attempts tomorrow. She looked great galloping over the Oaklawn course and certainly looks to have the competition over a barrel in this one. Of course nothing is certain, see Rachel Alexandra's last one, it's likely that in her next race Zenyatta will look to extend the streak beyond the great Citation and Cigar.
The only question that matters though is who will be in that next race? Will Rachel Alexandra's connections finally step up and take on the real champ, or will a new Dare and Go type emerge? Only time will tell. Until then let's watch the Horse of the Decade (which by default makes her the horse of the Century) Zenyatta!!
On a side note: Thanks again for trying Mr. Cella!!! You got us the closest yet.
The Big Mare has given every indication that she will win the Apple Blossom for the second time in as many attempts tomorrow. She looked great galloping over the Oaklawn course and certainly looks to have the competition over a barrel in this one. Of course nothing is certain, see Rachel Alexandra's last one, it's likely that in her next race Zenyatta will look to extend the streak beyond the great Citation and Cigar.
The only question that matters though is who will be in that next race? Will Rachel Alexandra's connections finally step up and take on the real champ, or will a new Dare and Go type emerge? Only time will tell. Until then let's watch the Horse of the Decade (which by default makes her the horse of the Century) Zenyatta!!
On a side note: Thanks again for trying Mr. Cella!!! You got us the closest yet.
Monday, April 5, 2010
Sidney's Candy or Candy Ride
I don't know about the rest of the racing world, but I was left wondering who I had just watched run away and hide in the Santa Anita Derby. That horse drawing off to win by over 4 looked a heck of a lot like Candy Ride. It really is nice to see a son of Candy Ride on his way to the Kentucky Derby.
A lot can be said for the horrible trip Lookin at Lucky and Caracortado had in the SA Derby but based on how impressive SC was it would be hard to believe either would have challenged that one for the victory. Lucky is a horse who does only enough to win even on his best day, it would have been hard for him to get past SC even with a clean trip. Lucky is begining to look a lot more like Pioneer of the Nile in that he does not put fields away. So assuming no one runs a freakish race and they finish in a pack at the wire Lucky could redeem himself on Derby Day, but that does not seem likely. So IMO the top west coast horse is now Sidney's Candy.
On a side note it is nice to see Joe Talamo get back into the derby with a legitimate shot. The loss of Revenge last year on Derby morning had to be tough. His chance to win that first Derby, may only be a year late.
In the East it was no suprise to see Eskendereya draw off and win for fun. The only interesting part of that race was the trouble filled race and horrific ride sufferred through by Awesome Act. Much like Lucky and Coracortado above, this one likely had no chance of getting to the winner, but still look for a better race in Kentucky.
A lot can be said for the horrible trip Lookin at Lucky and Caracortado had in the SA Derby but based on how impressive SC was it would be hard to believe either would have challenged that one for the victory. Lucky is a horse who does only enough to win even on his best day, it would have been hard for him to get past SC even with a clean trip. Lucky is begining to look a lot more like Pioneer of the Nile in that he does not put fields away. So assuming no one runs a freakish race and they finish in a pack at the wire Lucky could redeem himself on Derby Day, but that does not seem likely. So IMO the top west coast horse is now Sidney's Candy.
On a side note it is nice to see Joe Talamo get back into the derby with a legitimate shot. The loss of Revenge last year on Derby morning had to be tough. His chance to win that first Derby, may only be a year late.
In the East it was no suprise to see Eskendereya draw off and win for fun. The only interesting part of that race was the trouble filled race and horrific ride sufferred through by Awesome Act. Much like Lucky and Coracortado above, this one likely had no chance of getting to the winner, but still look for a better race in Kentucky.
Thursday, April 1, 2010
4/3/10 Derby Preps
This saturday figures to feature the likely favorite and second choice for the Derby. Eskendereya will face moderate competition from Awesome Act and Jackson Bend, while Lookin at Lukcy takes on a relatively honest crop of 3yr olds at Santa Anita.
The tougher of the two on paper figures to be the SA Derby. With the likes of Sidney's Candy, Coracortado, Alphies Bet, and even Skipshot, it would be no suprise to see Lookin at Lucky get beat. Lucky's only defeat came over the SA surface and it was no small matter to see Bobby B looking at shipping him back out of town. The surface may not be one that he prefers. He appeared to be all out to beat Nobles Promise in the Rebel and may simply need this race before getting cued up for the Derby. I will look to beat him with Alphie's Bet and then combine Lucky on the bottom of exotics with Alphie's and Sydney's Candy. Skipshot will be my price play in the exotics.
The Wood Memorial on paper appears to be a race for second. Eskendereya looked simply awesome in the Fountain of Youth. He has had ample time to recover, as he was given extra time off by passing the Florida Derby, and seems to be coming into the race in top form. The extra time off may help avoid a bounce off that last big number. Awesome Act and Jackson Bend will take action but neither look like they can challenge to top one with anything less than a new lifetime best effort. The race does not offer much in the way of value so I will simply be watching and taking notes for the Derby.
The tougher of the two on paper figures to be the SA Derby. With the likes of Sidney's Candy, Coracortado, Alphies Bet, and even Skipshot, it would be no suprise to see Lookin at Lucky get beat. Lucky's only defeat came over the SA surface and it was no small matter to see Bobby B looking at shipping him back out of town. The surface may not be one that he prefers. He appeared to be all out to beat Nobles Promise in the Rebel and may simply need this race before getting cued up for the Derby. I will look to beat him with Alphie's Bet and then combine Lucky on the bottom of exotics with Alphie's and Sydney's Candy. Skipshot will be my price play in the exotics.
The Wood Memorial on paper appears to be a race for second. Eskendereya looked simply awesome in the Fountain of Youth. He has had ample time to recover, as he was given extra time off by passing the Florida Derby, and seems to be coming into the race in top form. The extra time off may help avoid a bounce off that last big number. Awesome Act and Jackson Bend will take action but neither look like they can challenge to top one with anything less than a new lifetime best effort. The race does not offer much in the way of value so I will simply be watching and taking notes for the Derby.
Thursday, March 18, 2010
Gulfstream's Big Weekend
On Saturday at Gulfstream there is no shortage of quality racing! From competitive Maiden fields up to the Grade 1 Florida Derby the card looks stellar. While most people will be keeping their eye on the Derby, I will be paying utmost attention to the Rampart Stakes. Bambera the Super horse from South America will be making her U.S. debut. The 8-1 odds on the morning line look pretty juicy if she fires her best shot first time out, and assuming she is not heavily bet down. Based on her past performances and lifetime record we may be looking at the female version of Invasor. If that is the case, then let us hope that Bambera romps in the Rampart and then goes looking for Zenyatta in the Apple Blossom. That April 9th race just may be a face-off between the two best female horses in the world anyhow!
1st - Bambera
2nd - Unrivaled Belle
3rd - Miss Singhsix, Don't Forget Gil
1st - Bambera
2nd - Unrivaled Belle
3rd - Miss Singhsix, Don't Forget Gil
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Tyler Baze and Vic Stauffer
Saw in the DRF that Tyler Baze just replaced his former agent with Vic Stauffer. Here is to hoping that Vic can help Tyler win multiple riding titles. Best of luck to both of you in this endeavor.
Rachel Alexandra Loses
The loud thud that could be heard around every racetrack on Saturday afternoon was the sound of Rachel Alexandra's exceedingly and excessively large reputation crashing to the earth. The sonic boom you heard shortly after was the sound of Zenyatta's reputation blasting off into the stratosphere. It was powered by the legions of fans who continue to adore her and the sure to be infinite numbers of fans jumping on the big mare's band wagon. Take nothing away from Rachel Alexandra, she is still a truly good racehorse and has accomplished more in her starts than just about any other horse will be expected to accomplish in a lifetime of races. But Beyer numbers, synthetic tracks, and eclipse award voters be damned, the number one thoroughbred in all the land she is not! The top Thoroughbred in the world is 15-0 Zenyatta!
Of course there will still be those inclined to split hairs and argue that Rachel is the better horse because she won prestigious races at prestigious tracks over “real” prestigious dirt. Yet, that same super horse who was the next coming of Seabiscuit, War Admiral, Ruffian, and Secretariat all rolled into one, lost a very un-prestigious race designed solely for her appearance, over a very real dirt surface after her very prestigious owner and trainerer had made a “timely” decision to give the filly a rest. To make matters worse she lost to a horse that has never won a Grade 1 or even Group 1 race in her career. To top it all off Rachel lost to perhaps the third best horse in the barn of John Sherrifs, the trainer of both Zenyatta and at the time Life is Sweet. Yes, the Rachel camp will notice that Zardana is undefeated on Dirt. So what? The fact that Zardana was on dirt did not somehow slow down Rachel Alexandra. Yes she made a nice kick to keep the race close, but the race was decided at the top of the stretch.
Now certainly almost any horse coming off a layoff is entitled to need a race. But a returning horse of the year, as Steven Crist recently pointed out, has not lost their comeback race since Ferdinand in 1988. It had been 22 years since a returning Horse of the Year lost their comeback race before Saturday afternoon. 13 of those horses were retired after winning horse of the year, meaning that only 9 horses in those 22 years had successfully returned and won. But nonetheless this tells us that a returning Horse of the Year champion is not just any other horse returning from a layoff. Interestingly a comparison of the last two female Horses of the Year shows quite a different story, Lady Secret returned in 1987 as the horse of the year and started her final season with a conspicuous 6th place finish in the Donn Handicap, while in 2003 Azeri, the then reigning Horse of the Year, returned to win none other than the Apple Blossom. Whether Rachel Alexandra will follow up with a year like Lady Secret had or a year like Azeri remains to be determined.
It may not be that Rachel Alexandra has lost a step at all. It could simply be that she is in the hands of an inept owner and a trainer willing to listen to that owner lest he be fired. Rachel Alexandra had last been seen in a competitive race in September of last year. After that race Jess Jackson proclaimed that he was giving Rachel a break. At the time Mr. Jackson cited the fact that Rachel ran more times by the end of her three year old season then Zenyatta had run in her three seasons combined. Perhaps, Jess Jackson was unknowingly explaining to himself that he had run Rachel off her own feet. Did that final dog fight with Macho Again in the Woodward after a torrid pace take something away from Rachel? Or is that the decidedly non designed 7 months on the sidelines left her less than desirous to charge out of the gate again? Or could it be that win master, and multiple eclipse awards winning, Steve Assmussen really did fail to get Rachel Alexandra ready to run? Either way the line about the weather in Louisiana sounds more like an excuse than a reason. After all, their collective brain trust is the one that took Rachel to the Fair Grounds to winter. I hear Southern California has great weather this time of year!
If in fact Rachel does not impress us as she did last year it should not come as any surprise to those in the thoroughbred business. Over the years a number of fillies and mares, and to a certain extent colts and horses, have followed up powerhouse seasons with a series of unexplainable duds. Such as the aforementioned Lady's Secret bringing up the rear in her final race after a less than stellar year, Stardom Bound in her recent lackluster efforts, or any other number of great fillies and mares who woke up slightly slower one day. Whether these fillies and mares have grown tired of the intrinsic exercise of chasing other horses, or simply developed that natural desire to be a mommy we do not know, but a good number of top class fillies only reign for so long. The lucky ones are retired before their aura shrinks away. With all that said, it is all the more reason why seeing Zenyatta fire race after race, month after month, and year after year is truly something special. If Zenyatta has woken up one morning and given any indication she did not want to run it is news to me and likely news to anyone else not named John Sherrifs or Jerry and Ann Moss. By all indications it is quite the opposite. Even Mike Smith, who has ridden some fillies and mares for the ages, is on record saying that 6 year old Zenyatta may be a better version of herself. Thus far, the four year version of Rachel Alexandra has left us asking if she in fact will be better.
Finally, the racing year in 2010 is still quite young and any talk of horse of the year would be premature at best, but a little hypothetical can be good for the soul still wounded by the 2009 Horse of the year vote. Even for the Mark McGwire’s among us who don’t want to talk about the past, it can be useful in stopping future travesties. If a poll of voters for horse of the year were taken today or last Sunday how many votes do you think Rachel Alexandra would get? The answer is likely somewhere around zero. How many votes do you think Zenyatta would get? Sure it’s probably not a landslide, but by any rational count she likely would get more than 1. Yet, both horses have run only once since the last vote for horse of the year was taken, and despite a brief retirement by Zenyatta, both horse remain in training and have run once since the last vote. Boy what a difference a day makes! The real question now is can Zenyatta ride this one day to an even bigger year and capture the one thing she can't take on the track? While last Saturday showed us just how mortal champion horses are, it also showed us just how invincible a truly great racehorse can be. Horse of the year are voted for, but true legendaries need no vote to be determined.
Of course there will still be those inclined to split hairs and argue that Rachel is the better horse because she won prestigious races at prestigious tracks over “real” prestigious dirt. Yet, that same super horse who was the next coming of Seabiscuit, War Admiral, Ruffian, and Secretariat all rolled into one, lost a very un-prestigious race designed solely for her appearance, over a very real dirt surface after her very prestigious owner and trainerer had made a “timely” decision to give the filly a rest. To make matters worse she lost to a horse that has never won a Grade 1 or even Group 1 race in her career. To top it all off Rachel lost to perhaps the third best horse in the barn of John Sherrifs, the trainer of both Zenyatta and at the time Life is Sweet. Yes, the Rachel camp will notice that Zardana is undefeated on Dirt. So what? The fact that Zardana was on dirt did not somehow slow down Rachel Alexandra. Yes she made a nice kick to keep the race close, but the race was decided at the top of the stretch.
Now certainly almost any horse coming off a layoff is entitled to need a race. But a returning horse of the year, as Steven Crist recently pointed out, has not lost their comeback race since Ferdinand in 1988. It had been 22 years since a returning Horse of the Year lost their comeback race before Saturday afternoon. 13 of those horses were retired after winning horse of the year, meaning that only 9 horses in those 22 years had successfully returned and won. But nonetheless this tells us that a returning Horse of the Year champion is not just any other horse returning from a layoff. Interestingly a comparison of the last two female Horses of the Year shows quite a different story, Lady Secret returned in 1987 as the horse of the year and started her final season with a conspicuous 6th place finish in the Donn Handicap, while in 2003 Azeri, the then reigning Horse of the Year, returned to win none other than the Apple Blossom. Whether Rachel Alexandra will follow up with a year like Lady Secret had or a year like Azeri remains to be determined.
It may not be that Rachel Alexandra has lost a step at all. It could simply be that she is in the hands of an inept owner and a trainer willing to listen to that owner lest he be fired. Rachel Alexandra had last been seen in a competitive race in September of last year. After that race Jess Jackson proclaimed that he was giving Rachel a break. At the time Mr. Jackson cited the fact that Rachel ran more times by the end of her three year old season then Zenyatta had run in her three seasons combined. Perhaps, Jess Jackson was unknowingly explaining to himself that he had run Rachel off her own feet. Did that final dog fight with Macho Again in the Woodward after a torrid pace take something away from Rachel? Or is that the decidedly non designed 7 months on the sidelines left her less than desirous to charge out of the gate again? Or could it be that win master, and multiple eclipse awards winning, Steve Assmussen really did fail to get Rachel Alexandra ready to run? Either way the line about the weather in Louisiana sounds more like an excuse than a reason. After all, their collective brain trust is the one that took Rachel to the Fair Grounds to winter. I hear Southern California has great weather this time of year!
If in fact Rachel does not impress us as she did last year it should not come as any surprise to those in the thoroughbred business. Over the years a number of fillies and mares, and to a certain extent colts and horses, have followed up powerhouse seasons with a series of unexplainable duds. Such as the aforementioned Lady's Secret bringing up the rear in her final race after a less than stellar year, Stardom Bound in her recent lackluster efforts, or any other number of great fillies and mares who woke up slightly slower one day. Whether these fillies and mares have grown tired of the intrinsic exercise of chasing other horses, or simply developed that natural desire to be a mommy we do not know, but a good number of top class fillies only reign for so long. The lucky ones are retired before their aura shrinks away. With all that said, it is all the more reason why seeing Zenyatta fire race after race, month after month, and year after year is truly something special. If Zenyatta has woken up one morning and given any indication she did not want to run it is news to me and likely news to anyone else not named John Sherrifs or Jerry and Ann Moss. By all indications it is quite the opposite. Even Mike Smith, who has ridden some fillies and mares for the ages, is on record saying that 6 year old Zenyatta may be a better version of herself. Thus far, the four year version of Rachel Alexandra has left us asking if she in fact will be better.
Finally, the racing year in 2010 is still quite young and any talk of horse of the year would be premature at best, but a little hypothetical can be good for the soul still wounded by the 2009 Horse of the year vote. Even for the Mark McGwire’s among us who don’t want to talk about the past, it can be useful in stopping future travesties. If a poll of voters for horse of the year were taken today or last Sunday how many votes do you think Rachel Alexandra would get? The answer is likely somewhere around zero. How many votes do you think Zenyatta would get? Sure it’s probably not a landslide, but by any rational count she likely would get more than 1. Yet, both horses have run only once since the last vote for horse of the year was taken, and despite a brief retirement by Zenyatta, both horse remain in training and have run once since the last vote. Boy what a difference a day makes! The real question now is can Zenyatta ride this one day to an even bigger year and capture the one thing she can't take on the track? While last Saturday showed us just how mortal champion horses are, it also showed us just how invincible a truly great racehorse can be. Horse of the year are voted for, but true legendaries need no vote to be determined.
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